The second quarter will reduce the prospect of stock market volatility attractive
The second quarter will 南京桑拿网 reduce the prospect of stock market volatility attractive
Recently, the bond market continued to fall, and A shares also fluctuated after the surge.
Some market participants believe that this is related to the tightening of liquidity in the money market.
Analysts point out that currently, the expected monetary policy will hardly change the reality, but based on the consideration of MLF termination of withdrawal, fiscal budget and other factors, the second quarter will gradually choose opportunities to reduce the allowance, and there will be boundary constraints on changes in liquidity. The value of stocks will continue to be greater thanBonds.
The tightening of funds in the market recently is not only reasonable, but also somewhat unexpected.
As a result, the risk factors are completely predictable and expected.
The first is the tax period. The peak of tax payment and storage this month will be around the 15th. The second is that the issuance of local bonds has accelerated since last week, and the liquidity return effect caused by the issuance of payments has intensified. The third is that there were 3270Millionths of a million
Under the influence of various factors, there is a certain pressure on the liquidity of the currency market.
At the same time, the amount of long-term budget funding has not been large in recent days, and the “upstream” of the money market is expected.
As of the 19th, the reverse repurchase operation has been carried out for 3 consecutive days, but the total investment is only 130 billion yuan, which is far less than the amount of MLF termination.
The initial fund injection effort was less than expected, which is preliminary that the capital tension has exceeded expectations in recent days.
After the Spring Festival, the frequency and intensity of gradually expanding liquidity have decreased, and the tolerance for short-term fluctuations in liquidity has increased.
This may indicate that the effect of monetary policy has entered a temporary observation period.
After all, from January to February, social financing has stabilized, and external risk factors have mitigation indicators, and the market’s pessimistic expectations of economic growth have been repaired.
It is currently in the early stage of wide credit, and it will take time for the positive feedback of the real economy to be derived from the improvement of credit derivation.
The monetary authorities have the conditions to look at the previous results before making decisions.
Although the current macro policy has increased the counter-cyclical adjustment, there is still room for it.
For example, this year budget deficits were implanted2.
8%, not more than 3%, an important consideration is to leave room for policy in response to previously possible risks.
Monetary policy is no exception.
This year’s government work report states that timely use of deposit reserve ratios, interest rates and other quantitative and price means will guide financial institutions to expand credit offerings, reduce loan costs, and accurately and effectively support the real economy.
In order to reduce the accuracy when necessary, make a preparation for interest rate cuts.
At present, the direction of wide credit has been determined, and the effective results have begun to appear. The downside risk of economic growth has converged. It is not realistic to expect that monetary policy will be significantly reduced.
However, based on factors such as the MLF return to maturity, the extension of the second-quarter extension of the machine is allowed to extend. This is not to relax the money, but to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, dredge the monetary policy mechanism, and keep the monetary policy tight and reasonableneed.
According to historical experience, entering the second quarter, the level of liquidity may decline, the transition or increase accordingly.
The termination volume of MLF in the second quarter was large, and the tax payment in April and May was large. Without considering the gradual change, liquidity supply and demand overcome the gap.
Data show that a total of $ 118.5 billion in MLF will expire in the second quarter. In April, May, and June, there were $ 366.5 billion, $ 156 billion, and $ 663 billion.
Affected by quarterly corporate income tax advance payment and annual settlement settlement, April and May were changed to traditional big bidding months.
For example, fiscal deposits increased by 1 in April and May 2018.
Although the government has stepped up tax and fee reduction efforts, the impact of tax periods on liquidity in the second quarter cannot be ignored.
At present, the bond market interest rate is still low, and local governments have more incentives to accelerate issuance.
In addition, the impact of six-month regulatory assessments on liquidity is usually stifled.
It should be said that due to concerns about liquidity gaps, 杭州桑拿网 maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the smooth operation of market interest rates, the possibility of continuing to reduce the quota in the second quarter may still be hindered.
It is worth mentioning that it is also necessary to maintain a relatively abundant liquidity status before credit derivation returns to normal.
Comprehensively considered, there is a possibility of a cut in the second quarter, and the overall liquidity is expected to remain reasonable and adequate, and the transition may increase earlier than the previous quarter.
Taking into account the continued advancement of wide credit, this combination is still relatively favorable for the stock market, and relatively unfavorable for the bond market. The variable risk of the end of the bull market has increased.